First past the post ... exit polls 2008

Today happens to be a SPECIAL day ... the polling day for the U.S. presidential election.

There is a big BUZZ and all the news networks are spinning their web of speculation and theories as to who will be the next president.

Do you believe in exit polls?

As the saying goes ... there are lies dam lies and statistics ...

Polls can never give you a definitive result ... in fact sometimes polls are a good way to influence the actual voting process.

So what does this mean? Will Obama win ... because he is in the lead - according to the polls ... or will this mean that more McCain supporters will cast their votes with more vigor?

There are many theories as to the influence of poll data on the actual voting process.

In short ... a candidate who is 'in the lead' according to the polls ... does not do as well in the actual vote compared to the 'underdog' candidate.

Now that the voting process is well underway ... the focus is on the EXIT POLLS !

The networks will follow strict rules Tuesday on projecting election results, examining not only the data from exit polls but actual vote tabulation and turnout data.

NBC — which keeps its decision desk isolated from the calls made by competing networks — will call a winner only once its statisticians conclude that the chance of an error is less than 1 in 200. And no calls will be made until all the polls have closed in a state.

Extreme measures are being taken to ensure that early information from exit polls does not leak out, as it did in 2004, when the first wave of surveys showing John Kerry in the lead rocketed through cyberspace.

For much of the day, only a small group will have access to the exit polling, which is being conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool, a consortium of the networks and The Associated Press.

"Exit poll information in the hands of trained professionals is perfectly fine," said Sam Feist, CNN's political director. "Exit poll information in the hands of the general public, who may not understand what it means or stands for, can be dangerous."

That's because exit polls are designed to provide a demographic portrait of voters, not to predict the winner of a close race. The early waves of data can be especially misleading because they do not necessarily reflect an accurate sample of the electorate.

This year, there's another factor: the huge surge in early voting.

To measure those voters, Edison/Mitofsky has been doing an extensive telephone survey in the past week, focusing on the 18 states with the highest concentration of absentee and early voting.

Voters Focus On Early Exit Poll Results Of 2008 Election As U.S. voters focus on getting out to vote and checking to see if their candidate won, more attention will be paid to early exit poll results in the 2008 election.

Late yesterday afternoon the McCain campaign issued a memo, actually a cautionary word about prejudging the exit poll results.

The memo suggested that in 2004 the early exit poll results were misinterpreted by the media, thus causing some U.S. Voters to stay at home and not cast their vote.

The memo went on to further state that the early exit polls overstated the Democratic candidate's support, therefore more Republican voters were more encouraged to cast their vote for the win.

Basically, this should be a message to all, do not let any early reports from the media that may leak out to influence your vote.

Take nothing for granted, and do not focus on the exit poll results of this 2008 election.

Here are some things to remember about early exit poll data and the U.S. Voting stats that are leaked early:

As a rule, exit polls lean toward the Democratic vote for some strange reason. Thus causing registered, eligible U.S. Voters to focus on their televisions and radios instead of actually going to the polls to vote.

Meaning, the early exit polls may give Obama the edge, when the actual tabulation and accurate counting of the votes have not been done.

Unfortunately that also has translated into a Democratic skew in past elections where there was a high voter turnout, like in 1992 and 2004. U.S. Voters are very engaged in the 2008 election, and therefore there will be a natural tendency to watch the early returns.

It's important to keep in mind that those conducting the early exit polls will poll voters who have a resemblance to their own demographic. Remember John Kerry in 2004?

The exit polls focused heavily on Democratic voters and showed Kerry over performing by 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed.

The National Election Pool concluded that Democrats are more likely to participate in exit polls during U.S. Elections. Recently, Fox News conducted a survey asking U.S. Voters how very likely they were to participate in early exit polls in the 2008 election and 46% of Barack Obama supporters said they would, while 35% of John McCain supporters were.

So, whatever numbers are presented by the media today in regards to exit polls, may be heavily focused or skewed toward the Democratic vote.

"Exit polling is a very valuable tool for understanding what people were thinking about as they voted," said Michael Oreskes, managing editor for U.S. news at The Associated Press.

"I think as a tool to actually gauge how things are going to turn out, we're likely to be very cautious about it." who know their territory and its history and trends.

In light of this report, the networks will be focusing on true results. They will attempt to play fair and follow strict rules in projecting early 2008 election early exit polling results.

NBC has already said they will only provide early exit polling results once their statisticians have concluded that the error margin is less than 1 in 200.

Stating further that no early election results will be released until all the polls have closed in a particular state.

Early exit polls are really designed to give a picture, a snapshot of voters, not to predict the winner of a presidential race.

Focusing on the early data and stats of voting trends can be very misleading and dangerous. U.S. Voters should not allow exit poll information influence their vote; instead realize that these samples are not an accurate of the voting electorate.

Today, the media will be attempting to put a lid on the leaks that have been attributed to them in the past when it comes to focusing on exit polls in the 2008 U.S. Election.

Are the exit polls 'honest'?

Now here is the real question ... how honest are responses people make at the exit polls?

Its 'trendy' to vote for Obama - so many want to be seen to vote for him ... but in the privacy of the polling booth - will they really vote for a 'black' president?

As you can see - there is one message for the pollsters ... and possibly a totally different one when it comes to the ballot paper.

Don't trust the polls!

If you have not voted as yet - go and make it count ... and as a added bonus try to make the pollsters wrong!